Hello Mark,
I agree with you about the danger of this falling below $7.00; if that happens, then all bets are off with me as well.
Some other observations:
I too see the breakout to the upside from that Trading Channel; while volume improved, what is concerning is that failure to carry through with that upward strength that took it here. As it is near the apex of the Descending Triangle, almost any movement out here fails to hold up on the significance spectrum.
A shorter term modified momentum indicator I have used successfully with SNRS in the past has peaked, which could potentially signal a short term peak for the issue as well. Speaking of Gravestone Dojis, if one considers this to be the peak of the short term upswing (from $7.00 to current prices) , then the bearish scenario will have more weight.
There is one more trend line the price is failing to pierce through, and that is the Fibonnaci-related Speed/Resistance line, in particular the 33% line. You can see it if you connect the S/R Fan from the peak of 4/21 to the low of 6/16. It's still not out of this yet.
A rising Speed/Resistance Fan with similar percentage measures gives a support line that coincides with the Long Term uptrend line for this issue. The support lies at $7.25. Any failure below this level, and the major trend gets violated.
RSI is still below 50, but I like how it is developing; momentum is still weak; distribution has not abated.
I'm still cautious; the chart needs to be more convincing, but I can see where arguments for a bullish or mildly bearish scenario can be made.
Regards,
Rainier |
