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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (24553)6/23/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
TCMS #'s - estimates...

With 40% off the $1.00 estimates (per the companies statement) being .60 cents for FY 98; times a reasonable PE of 15 a $9.00 price near term is not unreasonable. If we get lucky and OPEC announces production cuts to the level that the street expects, we could see some PE expansion going forward and they are well set up to positively surprise; due to the downward revisions and lowered analyst expectations. But if they miss ... very, very ugly.

I am still holding, but will not buy more even at these prices to average down, untill I see Q2 numbers and hopefully some new contract announcements. Quite simply, the street will not give them any benefit of the doubt untill they prove they deserve it, by hitting the numbers consistantly. I still love the niche, the business plan, barge acquisition and recent contract work with RIG etc... but these guys must start hitting the numbers... maybe they are learning the game by ''downplaying'' future expectations... sure hope they are ''downplaying''; because .60 cents versus last years .55 cents is nothing to write home about ! 10% EPS growth even in a negative crude price enviroment - still doesn't cut it....

IMHO -- we need to see at least .66 - .70 cents ( a minimum of 20-25% EPS growth) for the ''story'' to continue...
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