Why MagicPhone Might Matter
A refactored Magic Cap is embedded in MagicPhone. MagicCap,
as you recall, was gmgc's first product and part of
its disaster during the "first" incarnation. General
Magic likes to blame the internet for that meltdown,
but in truth, MagicCap contributed its share of problems.
Too fat and slow, for one thing. An unfortunate tendency
to lose people's data, for another. MagicCap
died and almost took gmgc with it.
Anyway, looks like gmgc has resurrected part of MagicCap
into this phone. This interests me, since it suggests
a play I hadn't considered.
I'll ignore the technical details here (like footprint and cogs),
for it is on the business side that things get really interesting.
Ok, think of Microsoft Start (their web portal) and
the IE browser. Everyone loves portals, yes? This is
why Yahoo is valued at a gazillion dollars. So microsoft
wants a piece of this action. This is why they
make the Microsoft Start portal and *point* their IE
browser to it. Thus, lazy people (99% of the market)
will automatically use Microsoft Start to enter the internet.
Netscape is doing the same thing - their browser
automatically points to their site, the Netscape
internet portal. AOL, Yahoo, Infoseek - all making
the same play. In short, everyone wants these choke points,
they are highly valuable, and Netscape/Microsoft are
using their browser oligopoly to try to corral
the sheep, er, the users, into them.
The point: Portico is a new form of internet portal. And
MagicPhone is a new type of "browser" that points to this
portal. Thus, GMGC has an opportunity to make the same
kind of play - capture people at internet point of entry and
channel them through Portico. Just like Netscape
and Microsoft, except gmgc will use the telephone instead
of the PC. But same benefits, same valuation potential.
Btw, this is different than using a cellular phone to
go through Portico. MagicPhone has a small screen, so
it will be possible to get visual feedback, plus use
non-VUI navigational controls. This will enable
full web-like access which is not possible in a regular
phone. This means full commerce applications (I can
see that dress I want to buy etc) become possible, thus,
a true portal.
Now imagine you're some phone exec. GMGC comes
to you and says: label and sell our MagicPhone and
we'll cut you into the internet portal business.
For example, you're Pacific Telesis, and you have
no clue how you are going to capture some
of these fat internet dollars. But now, you can
sell this MagicPhone and every household will
point to your Pacific Telesis portal (underneath
which, of course, is Portico). Now, you too can
play the content/advertisement/commerce game,
just like Yahoo or Microsoft. People will go
through *you* to buy those clothes or groceries,
or research that mortage. And you get this access
via a device which has hugely greater
penetration than a mere PC - everyone loves
their telephone. And talking to a telephone will be
far more engaging than messing with a PC.
And GMGC is the foundation underneath it all, raking
in its generous service and liscensing fees.
Of course, Microsoft might eventually make the
same pitch to telephony people via CE and Start. But who wants
to sell their souls to Microsoft? Wise people know what's
happened to Microsoft's past "partners" and this will
give GMGC an advantage.
Well, hard to see exactly where this will end up.
Right now we've just got a prototype and so it's
doubtful anything will come out of this until next year.
But I have to say it is really intriguing, and points
to another wild upside potential in GMGC's valuation.
And I give Markman credit for figuring out a real use
for MagicCap!
Sea Otter
P.S. Several people pointed me to the Yahoo gmgc board.
I'm embarrassed that I was unaware of it. Anyway, I've
never seen a board so dynamic - quite impressive.
Lots of noise there, but lots of interesting info
too. It's great that we have such a community of
people backing and making money on this stock. |
