"Sorry, but your assumption that juniors with cash will "really thrive" is simplistic."
Why "simplistic" Ray? If a bull market in the metals appears, the juniors with cash to get them there will thrive. Some on the verge of dissolving might even revive.
"Will any specific junior have a property with an ore body?"
Most have something--at least a possibility. That's their business. Not saying there aren't scams, but bankrupcies even in this market aren't any more common than many other industries.
"Does each junior have 1) good geologists"
What % of geologists out in the field do you consider bad, Ray? Even Felderhof was a "good geologist" who helped stake a major find pre-Bre-X.
"2) astute financial management, 3) top managers who understand how to promote, 4) major brokers behind them"
If the price of silver breaks $10 and the price of gold $500 an oz how much of the above do you think will really matter? If it's a company with a property of potential, it will go UP. Probably a number of poor plays will ride the coat tails of the ones that have all of the above.
"5) a stockholder base that won't simply sell into any rebound?"
So who's going to be in an itching big hurry to sell if a bull market in metals develops? Anyway, selling half on the way up is only prudent. On Wall street they call it "taking profits."
"<<All hostile conditions will reverse themselves in time with a healthy POG>> That is known as a straw man case. Why and when would POG increase? This aspiration fails to recognize the change in monetary system. Gold transaction costs and inefficiencies of transfer prevent gold from serving as basis of transactions for world trade."
Tell that to the Asians "WHO WISH THEY"D HAVE HELD THEIR ASSETS IN GOLD LAST FALL.
"Do you understand that majority of gold production is now not labour
intensive and, therefore, tendency for inflation to elevate gold mining costs is not operative today. POG protects us from inflation only if the cost of producing gold climbs if inflation translates into rising gold mininig wages not offset by gains in productivity. If higher unit operating costs are not met by rising POG then, ultimately, mines close and gold supply diminishes. However, decline in gold supply must be sufficient to cause actual reduction in marginal supply sufficient to cause users to subscribe to higher prices."
Did the doubling of coffee prices justify the doubling of the cost of a cup of coffee? The low cost of gold is shutting down mines just like the low price of coffee caused planation owners in Guatemala to stop fertilizing their coffee fields in the early '90's leaving them in an ill position to score on the quick and sudden move up. I remember the sentiment back then on coffee--it was a dead commodity, yet at that point it tripled from its bottom.
"Gold is no longer money...gold is dead...gold has been in a ten year bear market..."
Ya da da da da. Check out the Dines transcript on last Friday's NBR for a different take.
"If you don't have time, inclination and skills to become personally
acquainted with juniors, their properties and their management you have better odds at the Blackjack table. Chances are at least 50-to-1 against a junior finding, from grassroots exploration, an economically viable property. To make money on juniors otherwise means selling on the first hint of a good drill intersection and that is plain crapshooting. Blackjack odds are only about 3.2% against a skillful player."
So who do you think you're addressing on this forum, Barney and Friends?
--AG |
