Scott, >Paul, I don't see the value in treating pre and post split prices equally. If the 21.80 from 96 is now actually 43.60 because of the 97 split, what is the value in comparing it to the recent low of
26? I don't get it... Scott<
With AMAT, I and others on this site have been seeking what elements contribute to the it's movement. The most common element, IMO, has been what the BTB numbers will be. But even that can have its error, ie. AMAT's initial breakdown from it high in this cycle when it's BTB was compared with the previous month and off, I believe, 0.01 rather than being compared with the previous year where it was up considerably. There was no rational explanation.
In gaging the tops and lows, another difficult matter, I started looking at potential patterns based on the discussions on this site and what we have posted.
Lester E.'s comments as he posted as follows starting me searching.
>To: Paul V. (17662 )
From: Lester e.
Friday, Mar 13 1998 9:41AM ET
Reply # of 20678
Paul,
I'm an old man. I know nothing about stock manipulations or how other markets affect us.
All I know is that AMAT is a great company in an industry that is still in its infancy and is bound to grow over the years.
I just hold and hold and see the net worth of the stock increase every year in good times and bad. About every two years or so the stock splits, decreasing my cost basis and at the end of the year my stock is worth more than it was last year. I have followed this stock for 30 years and this scenario goes on with just a few exceptions.
This plan works for me so I continue to hold. I'm no rocket scientist, ust a retired judge who thinks he is playing a safe game.
Keep the faith/
Lester e.<
>To: Paul V. (20601 )
From: Lester e.
Friday, Jun 19 1998 11:21PM ET
Reply # of 20679
Paul,
You are right. I'm still here still holding with a basis of about $3.00. I hold 16 shares for
every share I bought.
I've been through situations like this before, and I am now scrounging around for every
dollar I can find to buy more.
The fundamentals have not changed. AMAT is a great company in an industry with a great
future. If one thinks the chip revolution is over, he shouldn't mess with this stock.
Since the value is there, I don't look for the bottom. I'll get mine at whatever price I payfor
the stock.
Keep the faith.
Lester e.<
After, Gottfried and I developed the BTB table which Gottfried has graphically placed on SI for us I continued to look at AMAT prices in the absolute and then ran the average and standard deviation of the highs and lows.
Using the absolute price figures the average of the Highs was $74.625 with the high price on standard deviation at $104.5494. This includes the latest absolute high 1997 price of 108.375. The average of the Lows was $29.282 with the low price on standard deviation at $21.74088.
However, I believe, in absolute terms, the low years were in 1991 at $19.2 and 1996 at $21.8 and in 1998 at $26.
IMO, this would explain why why my increase from my original AMAT purchase in 10/97 has a cost now of $13.91 or more than double than my original purchase at these low AMAT prices.
Lester E.'s comments,IMO, tend to support the absolute AMAT price data. Placing this data and comparing it with the the DW charts, IMO, tends to support my assumptions. Like I say they, they are only my assumptions.
In search of a better mouse trap<g>
Naturally, the above is only my opinions and assumptions Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)."
But, I am open to looking at critical analysis of my assumptions.
Please advise.
Paul V.
Paul V. |
