OK, enough of this gloom and doom stuff. Let's try and lay out a optimistic, bullish picture for this stock. Here are some positives (and alot of wishful thinking) as I see them (in no particular order):
1.) All it takes is _one_ OEM announcement from Dell, Compaq, or Gateway to turn Banshee into a huge success. Everything I see in the Banshee specs says that Banshee has a legitimate shot at getting such a deal.
2.) Earnings are coming up next month. Street consensus is in the low $0.50s - I'm confident it will be at least in the mid $0.70s
3.) Consolidation is starting to occur. Who knows what could happen to the stock if a strong wave of rumors were to rekindle Wall Street's interest in this sector.
4.) Voodoo2 price cuts should spark more buyers for V2 boards. I'm hopeful TDFX and the board makers will start a campaign to get existing V2 owners to upgrade to SLI setups.
5.) The competition's boards will start appearing and then start _losing_ benchmarking tests to Banshee and Voodoo2 based cards. Some of the competition will go out of business or be bought out when this occurs.
6.) Voodoo3 rumors will start appearing. Personally, I want TDFX to be very proactive about promoting (not hyping, but not being tip-lipped either) about what "Mega-multitexturing" will mean to game developers.
7.) "Half-Life" from Valve Software will be released and be a _huge_ hit! As will "Sin", "Daikatana", and (eventually) "Duke Nukem Forever."
8.) DirectX 6.0 will be released and (hopefully) benchmarks will show that Banshee and Voodoo2 based boards run it better than the other boards.
9.) (Hopefully) Some boardmaker will figure out a way to offer Banshee's 2D capabilities with SLI Voodoo2's 3D capabilities on a single board and offer the "Ultimate 'Doo"
10.) The 500Mhz and 600Mhz Pentium II's will arrive and cause the gamers with 200Mhz machines to finally upgrade.
11.) Windows 98 will spark Wall Street's interest in the AddOn Hardware sector.
12.) (Hopefully) Along with the .25u version of Banshee, a .25u version of the Voodoo2 is announced allowing chip speeds of up to 150MHz.
13.) (Hopefully) The PCI-based version of the Banshee add-in card will be a surprising good seller for people with older 200Mhz computers that don't want to upgrade their machines.
14.) (Hopefully) TDFX's stock price recovers enough to get it back into the Russell 3000's final list which comes out at the end of this month.
15.) (Hopefully) Someone figures out how to get Banshee cool enough to fit in a laptop. Combined with hot new 3D-based presentation software (PowerPoint?) this sparks a wave of 3D laptop purchases buy big business (and Wall Street firms!).
More???
Chip |
