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Biotech / Medical : Chromatics Color Sciences International. Inc; CCSI
CCSI 24.53-1.8%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: JanyBlueEyes who wrote (3433)6/23/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: Peter V  Read Replies (2) of 5736
 
Janybird, Maisels admitted he is no expert on markets. Just because Unicef indicates that there are babies that are going to be born, does not mean that the BiliTest is going to be used on them, especially if it is more expensive than current methods. His estimation of the market based on the number of babies born does not account for the one fundamental crux of the entire market isssue: the potential penetration of the BiliTest into the market occupied by already existing testing methods. Without that analysis, Maisels opinion on the potential market is worthless. Look at what he says:

I cannot claim expertise in how "markets" are calculated, but the potential for the use of transcutaneous bilirubinometry involves the majority of babies born in the world. . . .
This does not strike me as being an "extremely limited" market."

It is clear that this is an opinion, not based on any analysis of the potential market penetratin of the device. You can believe him if you want, but Maisels is not an expert in this area. Moreover, he is an interested party that owns a large number of shares in CCSI, and thus has a vested interest in its stock price. I'd be more inclined to believe a completely neutral third party, not someone that CCSI has paid to test and endorse its device, and who expresses opinions in an area in which he is not qualified.
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