Peter: You are confused. Maisels never estimated market size. Market size is a dollar figure. He never gave one. Over and over (and over, your post does go on) you say things like
<< He plainly stated he did not know how the size of markets are calculated, but then expressed an opinion on market size. What is that opinion worth? ZERO. >>
The exact quote from Maisels is "I cannot claim expertise in how "markets" are calculated". (Markets, Peter. Think dollars.) However, he obviously feels qualified to discuss numbers of births and bilirubin tests. Having done this, he gives an opinion: "This does not strike me as being an ''extremely limited'' market.'' Maisels does not need to be an expert on calculating exact dollar market sizes to reasonably claim the market doesn't strike him as being "extremely limited". For example, if you were to say the market for modems is extremely limited, I could use my knowledge that there are tens of millions of PC owners and rightfully claim "that does not strike me as an extremely limited market", even though I have no idea how to accurately gauge modem market size.
You write
<<He said he did not know how markets are calculated, and then he said based on his review of business plans, which he did not write, indicate the market is 16 million. Janybird, they didn't need Maisels to regurgitate what was in the business proposals, those numbers were
already used by the company in its estimate. Having Maisels read the report and simply read what it said added nothing. He did not say "based on my knowledge and experience," he said "based on the business plans." >>
Come on. Multiple business plans were submitted. They didn't all say the same thing. He reviewed them. He said "I have found the estimated number of bilirubin tests in the United States to be over 16,000,000". (By the way, note your confusion over what a market is again. # of tests is not a market size estimate.) He knows statistics, he's an expert on bilirubin. You need somebody with a feel for the field to look over these business proposals. Who better than someone like Maisels? He didn't just give the company number either: the company had previously estimated 15,000,000 tests (check the CC); this indicates a new estimate by Maisels. (My guess is that Maisels was involved in the original estimate as well.)
The one good point you raise is one I agree with (and said so in an earlier post): Maisels has no business talking about worldwide births. Many third world babies are born into starvation conditions and are not part of any conceivable CCSI market. He should have taken U.S. births and multiplied them by 3 or something (Western Europe, Japan, parts of South America and China, ..) Bad error on CCSI's part.
Wade |
