There seems to be a lot of concern about the lack of pipelines in the AIPN concession area, at least that is the impression I get from posters on AOL.
I am not that concerned for a couple of reasons. 1. Iran and Kaz will re:ink a deal on swapping oil in the not too distant future. 2. It will be a while before AIPN and or its JV will be pumping oil, certainly enough time for such an enterprise to begin, if the oil is there in the requisite quantity. 3. I have always thought that the concession would be nothing more than an earthen oil storage. If the oil is there, a pipeline will be build or will be made accessible, because reserves are currently overstated and the need for fossill fuel will only increase after the next twelve months, and will probably grow dramatically, unless we have a major world wide recession.
Remember that one of the reasons for negotiating with the Russians was the proximity to oil pipelines. I never saw that attraction, since you would still have to truck the oil in over a long road.
Bottom line is that if AIPN is sitting on 5 B of proven reserves (no where near that determination) sometime in the near future, our fortunes are secure. If not, we better pray that the refinery is a whopping success.
As for the Hunts, when you can only deal with the devil, you have to expect the devil's dish. If it were not for the Hunts, where would GF have gotten the money to do all that the company has done to date? Certainly, conventional financing is preferable, but that is all hind sight. If he can get conventional financing soon or a jv, the stock will go up. If not, the stock will meander here.
Also, some people believe that a jv is out of the question for now, because the oil is not needed now. Oil companies do not think in the present. They think five years down the road, and they are always interested in increasing their reserves. They know the real facts. As far as jvs holding out, I don't think so. Prospect jvs when there are discussions among many are like a cartel. Eventually, one will cheat and make an offer AIPN cannot refuse. GF knows that and so does every oil company.
The think I would like to hear about most is Huddelston's report on the second feature at Chikuduk. Whatever happened to Begesh? That is more of a known quantity. Chikuduk could be much larger and has to be specked out thoroughly first, before any further drilling can be done at Begesh, which I understand has to be cleaned up first. That's a waste of time compared to Chikuduk's virgin promise.
Dan Dwyer |
