Peter,
I have a definite preference for the Oracle engine, but I believe most of the growth in the next few years will be in the smaller dbms installations, small business etc. When I was at Dell thats what I saw, the big databases were growing, but not as fast as the huge proliferation of small datamarts for individual depts with olap, etc. So for those users, which are primarily NT, Sqlserver works just fine and thats what I think they will buy (btw, notice most of the oracle engine growth is on NT currently-Ill bet most are pretty small transaction volumes). So I see pretty flat growth for Oracle engine once sqlserver really ships.
In the apps space I think Psft will emerge as an equal to Sap, Sap will still be there, and Oracle apps will decline (Baan is already gone)
Its a pretty gloomy picture I know, but Im sure my thinking is similar to many analysts which is why the stock isnt moving. Unless something really changes, like msft has more DOJ problems, or Oracle buys Vntv and Manu, I cant see Oracle stock going much past 30 and I think there are better opportunities out there.
I like these 4 stocks: ITWO, MANU, VNTV, SEBL and I think any of them will perform better than Oracle will (again, unless something changes). I dont want to dismiss Larry though as I know he is a fierce competitor.
Michelle |
