At a bottom now for gold? Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold?

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To: Bill Murphy who wrote (1216)	6/24/1998 1:14:00 PM
From: Ray Hughes	Read Replies (1) of 1911

Hi Bill, One of perhaps two major keys to POG outlook is net CB trading. Shift to neutral would be helpful but US Fed could still trade a neutral market to set POG flat. We need, also, major buying sentiment shift by public that would swamp Fed gold selling. What starts that - Asian anti-dollar backlash? I put a lot of credibility in that. Trouble spot, though, is long term record showing POG does not rise when World "real" interest rate is positive as is now strongly the case. Currencies must be discredited by strongly negative real rates. Hence, before POG rises I believe CBs must see need to inflate their way out of a credit bust. Is inflation in the cards when money supply has disappeared down the Asian black hole? RH

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