Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 233.22

+1.8%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: craig crawford who wrote (7392)	6/24/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Henry Wolfond	Read Replies (2) of 164684

As I read back through this thread, something strikes me as very bizarre. Most of us (geniuses) recognize that this company has a fundamental value based on earnings potential, book value or present value of future earnings of somewhere in the range of 0.75 to 2.00. One would think those lucky enough to be long since early June, given their recognition of the hard business realities, would be saying (at a minimum) "I'm taking my original bet off the table". Has no one done this? (I'm asking seriously) Would any one pay over $5 billion dollars to acquire this company as a takeover or merger target? No. Even though most optimistic analysts targets for 12 months were blown through at 70. Who is buying this stock at this price? If anyone on this thread purchased the stock yesterday or today, I think we'd all like to hear their rationale for doing so. My down home Peter Lynch style assessment of this company is this: I'm a dedicated internet purchaser of everything from airline tickets to bicycles. No question that it's a fun way to shop. I've bought books through Amazon many times. When reflect on those purchases however, I realize that they have always been made when I want a specific (hard to get) book or when I want to see what's available on a specific topic. Factoring in the shipping cost, it's always cheaper to pick up the latest best seller at a bricks and mortar establishment and more fun too. I may be alone in saying that the internet is the last place I'd go to pick up the novel I want to read at the lake this summer. For me that mission requires physical browsing, it's the tactile experience of perusing the back cover and the inside flap. That is what makes going to Borders a joyful way to spend an hour on Sunday afternoon. And these mega stores are jammed. Does anyone believe that 25% of the books sold in the world are going through Amazon within 5 years? And would the realization of that goal make the price of Amazon's stock sustainable given the thin and shrinking margins on the commodities they sell? I'd be interested in any responses to the above.

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