Mark and all, my notes from last night's IEEE talk.
I have added no comments or interpretation. GM
"Change and Stability in the DD Industry" Mark Geenen, president and founder of TrendFocus. IEEE Magnetics Society meeting June 23.1998 at Santa Clara U.
Before the talk an upcoming conference on
"20,000 tpi digital servos" was announced.
TMRC'98 on heads will be held in Boulder on August 17.-19.1998
Mr Geenen's main bullets were...
* how did we get into this mess?
* new realities
* up from the abyss
* conclusions
The present state of the DD industry is the worst he has seen. The industry deluded itself with overzelous forecasts and miscalculated demand. Second tier suppliers are rising.
Almost billions of dollars worth of excess capacity was built, especially in the component area. 10 million square feet of
additional mfg space added last few years.
Fujitsu and Samsung doing well. Does Toshiba have staying power?
Average head and disk ratios per HDA are
about 6 and 3 now, respectively. Will decrease slowly to save cost.
Many component suppliers being crippled. Economic factors:
PC spending increases more slowly. Asia has not hit bottom.
Saw empty construction sites when visiting Malaysia.
81m PCs sold in 1997. Processor performance outstripping
users' needs.
80+% of DD cost is materials.
slower capacity rise because of lack of killer apps.
MR and GMR heads fuel density battle.
multimedia/MMX are just buzz - do not add to storage
requirements yet.
Must now meet same DD capacity with fewer parts.
After 2000, DD growth greater than PC growth
Gains of cheap PC pressures DD $$
DD demand overwhelmingly PC driven now, at least till 2000.
Need: fewer and downsized DD companies, mergers
and plant closures. fewer head/disk vendors.
Quinta and TeraStor not near term competition
Superparamagnetic limits to be stretched
holographic storage years away
faster rpm for all DDs
opportunities abound
New applications: home servers 2001-?
BW driven after 2000
desktop video 2000-?
mass market digital photography 1999
even in 2001 DD mix still mostly PC
conclusion: survivors have cash, technology, low cost, speed, scalability, flexibility
diversification, vertical integration
cost is king, technology close second
market at bottom, rise to be slow
DD industry will thrive and prosper
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