Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: joe who wrote (10489)	6/24/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) of 18691

Saddam knows that he has been able to survive because he mostly chose victims nobody really cared about. Let's face it. Nobody in the US really cares about the "Kuwaiti People." We care about the people who pump the oil, and making sure they still work with us. We don't trust Saddam to do that so we took the place back, but we don't care enough at a personal level to want to wipe him off the face of the earth, kill lots of civilians, etc. As such, his risk is limited. He pushes too far and we'll push him back, and minimal personal cost. That scenario changes REALLY fast if he actually attacks western powers with biological weapons. It would have the same effect as Pearl Harbor. Very few would care about Saddam's well being or worry about a few million Iraqi civilian casualties after that, just as nobody felt sorry for the firebombing of Tokyo and Dresden not too long ago. Our enemies know it. We didn't get into WWI until US ships were being torpedoed offshore. We didn't get into WWII until Pearl Harbor. Korea and Vietnam were doomed because most people at home just didn't care and the personal costs too high. Grenada, the Gulf, Panama and others have been successful because they've been relatively bloodless and great TV entertainment for the kids. Bring the war home to the US in a graphic way, and Saddam guarantee's his own destruction. 1945 Dresden would look nice compared to what we could do to Bahgdad with modern weaponry and the collective desire to use it. He's a smart one. The Gulf War didn't cost him a thing, and raised his stature in the third world. He won't risk that just to kill a few thousand civilians. mg

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