Warning - long post - read at your own risk!
I'd like to bring up a new topic that I haven't seen discussed yet. What makes TDFX so good at what they do? Let's look at this objectively, basically you have a bunch of very bright engineers putting out chip designs that perform very well for their intended markets. TDFX has something like 85% of the high end 3D gamer market if memory serves me right. That's huge. They have a huge loyal following and everyone <even the shorts> will acknowledge their current superiority. How did they achieve this? Their competitors have very bright engineers. Some of these people may even be technically superior. What has given TDFX the edge?
IMO management decisions that were made in the past. It's not enough to deliver a technically superior product. The product has to satisfy consumer needs. TDFX worked very closely with game developers to identify those features that were most needed to deliver a quality gaming experience. By this I mean that they recognized what the gamers would want and need 6 months to a year before their competition. They worked to deliver the technology within a suitable cost structure. They provided value added support to the developers by giving them a proprietary driver interface that was easy to use and quick to program over and above the "standardized stuff". Quake was born and it delivered beyond many people's expectations. Was it luck? was it technology? or was it the efforts of an enlightened management working closely with its' target industry to deliver the next generation at a reasonable cost. Cost, time to develop, compatibility to prior products, features to support/not to support, etc. are all decisions that must be made to win at this game. Banshee IMO will be a success. They could have stuck with their 3D strength but they didn't. They went for the gold on 2D and from what we've heard so far, they've succeeded (1% slower than theoretical maximum - Matrox eat your heart out!) Rampage is not far down the horizon. This is their next big gamble and I am confident that they are more capable of suceeding than any of their competitors. I invested in this company because management has demonstrated up till now that they can put everything together and deliver the goods. Granted they've made mistakes, Rush was a partial mistake, their relationship with Wall Street has been another mistake. They're young yet, a very small company with very high hopes, that has a pretty good lead over the competition. The last few weeks have really tested my fortitude and I don't expect things to turn around quickly. I'm sure they have/will talk to their underwriters, meet with their directors, to meet the challenge. They need to balance the needs for non-disclosure to maintain competitive advantage with the needs of their investors to know and understand the direction of their company and the future of their investment. If this all sounds like total bull, I'm sorry. I just think that we all sometimes lose sight as to just how difficult it is to play this game. One last thought, its not a loss until you tell Uncle Sam.
Joe C. |
