Hi engineer. I am not sure what immediate effect either one of the Barron's articles would have. I just finished reading the interview with Dillon's analyst on cable companies.
The issues stated in Phone Bill are very real and the RBOCs need to find a solution. At the end of the Dillon interview she talks about what she has been hearing re who is focusing on what. What she says is completely true. Right now the RBOCs are more focused on defending their local turf and trying to get into the long distance business. Internet access issue is important but not as important. However, I totally disagree with her on the prospects of cable for internet access. She doesn't have a good grasp of the technologies and is just repeating what she's been told. All major cable companies including Time Warner have, at least for now, backed-off from their original deployment plans. Cost (which we all know they can't afford) as well as technical difficulties have been rumored to be the main reasons. As she correctly points out, cable companies have their own problem defending their business against DBS.
None of this info is new to WS folks who follow the broadband access space closely. That's why the stock prices (for ADSL & Cable related companies) are where they are and no amount of trial data or positive posts on these threads is going to change that in the immediate future.
It's nice to focus on foreign markets, but many people on the street look at it in a different way. Currently US has the overwhelming majority of the net users. It would take a while for foreign markets to develop. People need to have the PCs to get online if and when someone gives them reasonably priced access. The issue isn't whether or not AMTX price would one day appreciate. It's more a matter of: can I buy it at this price 6+ months from now? In my view, the answer would be YES unless there is a takeover. Back in the spring these were momentum stocks, now they are just investments. One day they may go back to being momentum but I have to deal with the now before I deal with the future.
Again, before I get flamed by friends and foe, let me state that I have not changed my views as far as ADSL or xDSL. I still think the potentials are huge and they are the best available solutions until wireless becomes a lot more feasible/robust. But we need to be all a bit realistic here. Look at it this way: regardless of how many more shares he would be getting soon and regardless of how badly he needs the money, no insider would be selling Amati shares if they were SO ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY SURE that the stock would be worth a lot more in a month. They would go and borrow the money they need now if they thought they'll be able to get 50% more in a month. Wouldn't you? So, in my view, they are hoping, just like you and I. Daniel mentioned Grove & Gates have sold stock as well. I see a major difference, neither one of them think their company is a takeover target and neither one of them need to prove their company is capable of being a winner. Smaller companies have to go a lot further to generate investor confidence.
But on the bright side, the phone companies are losing money on the likes of me who keep the line up nearly all day and they are looking at this technology seriously despite the fact that cable cos have backed off from internet access plans. Techie |
