Haim, I feel like I'm tied to two horses headed in different directions. Final GDP numbers showed a half point upward revision and the price deflator was also revised upward, yet durable goods, yesterday, showed the effects of Asia and jobless claims are up as well. So, Q1 was "better" than anyone thought, yet corporate earnings were a disappointment. Now, the economy is showing signs of slowing, yet the Street seems to think earnings will rebound sharply. Labor is flexing its muscles as might be expected in a tight labor market and one of the basic food groups (dairy) is experiencing shortages and record prices, yet "inflation is dead" as far as the market is concerned. I don't know what the Fed might do next week, but I'm sure that the market's complacency (new highs, low VIX) makes no sense to me.
Regards,
Bob the Confused Bear (is it Spring yet?) |
