This is my take on the current situation:
1. Sell side analysts can have a hidden agenda, but the argument that the state of health of TDFX customers (DIMD, CREAF etc) will affect the evaluation for TDFX is basically valid. Both DIMD and CREAF are depressed, this spreads to TDFX, even if TDFX high end niche is not directly affected. Check the concurrent plots of these three stocks.
On the positive side, these stocks (DIMD, CREAF) are seasonal, and typically do better later in the year, better times should be coming.
2. These days, the Street favors not the tech stocks that are doing well now, but the tech stocks it expects to do better in the future. To this extent, (anticipated) good results this quarter can not help the stock price considerably. However, a good CC after earnings could help a lot by providing a positive outlook for the coming quarters.
As for Banshee OEM deals with cardmakers (and, ideally, with boxmakers), the product is still being sampled/tested . Once everybody is sure that Banshee is stable, we'll see the announcements
Again, some guidance should come from the coming CC.
3). End of the quarter is close, this is the time when beaten down stocks are typically performing poorly. I expect though to see some buying at the beginning of the next quarter.
4). The management should authorize a buyback. No need to actually buy back the stock, but the announcement usually helps. CYMI authorized a $50m buyback, actually spent only $1.5M with good results.
5) The analysts are going to come around in a few weeks, the first one to turn will be Monty and its clients, since they benefitted the most from the selloff. Now they will try to keep the price low while gradually covering their short positions.
6) All longs should pray for a rally in techs in end July-August.
Still long TDFX,
Y.
|
