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Technology Stocks : Activision....Returns!
ATVI 94.420.0%Oct 13 5:00 PM EST

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To: Tom Caruthers who wrote (1206)6/25/1998 12:27:00 PM
From: Tom Caruthers  Read Replies (1) of 1992
 
Just wanted people to know that I have been slowly accumulating
this stock at these prices. I also picked up some more today.

Risk: ATVI may have a bad quarter...traditionally this one's the weakest. However, I see the console games selling well, especially V8, Pitfall 3D(Not bad), and upcoming Quake II and Apocalypse games.

This stock is just too cheaply priced here. BROD got taken out and the industry consolidation continues. Virgin, too. Who will be next?

But even without a takeover attempt (it is after all Kotick's company) ATVI has all of the pieces in place to be a vertically integrated independent games maker. Solid North American and European distribution...good relationships with top tier developers as well as a great in-house staff. Weak marketing and short-term weakness in Australia distribution (their distributor got taken out by Take Two, I believe)... I think the positivies definitely outweigh the negatives here and ATVI's stock price will eventually reflect this fact.

I see a recovery in most games makers barring MPRS (it has its own troubles) and GTIS (for now). Take a look at how many shares ERTS would have to issue to buy ATVI...a steal, especially if done in stock. ATVI had $ 4 1/2 per share in cash...probably less now with it's equity investments in Pandemic and others) but the stock is only trading at $10! That's getting ATVI at $6 per share or 0.50x trailing revenues!

BARGAIN. BARGAIN. BARGAIN. We may need to wait a while, but not long. Mark my words.

Tom C.
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