re: " I won't chase them up"
Good plan. For the rest of this year, I see a lot of volatility (if anything, more than the first half ). This has not been a good year for buy-and-hold. The market is trying to decide whether: (A):we've already hit the lows, the BTB is going up from here, and earnings will pick up in 4th quarter 98, or (B):orders will be down 30% 97 to 98, and flat 98 to 99. If the market decides on (B), then we'll revisit 1996 prices for semi-equip stocks, late in 1998 or first half 1999. I think we've already hit the highs for the year for every semi-equip stock. Everyone who guessed 60 as the high or end for 1998 is jointly awarded the Overoptimist Of The Year award. I'm guessing resistances are: INTC 84, AMAT 32, KLIC 17. I have no idea re. KLAC or ASMLF.
Half my portfolio is INTC, which I bought at end-of-May, beginning-of-June, average price 69. I almost sold at 75, but have revised my sell point to 84. Then I'll decide whether I want to hold cash till the next dip, or short something. If any of the equips go up a lot more than the others, off their June lows, they are short candidates. Hammer down the nail that sticks up. |
