CMTR-CHEMTRAK FDA OK Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : CMTR-CHEMTRAK FDA OK

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To: Dave O. who wrote (80)	12/1/1996 7:37:00 PM
From: Art Baer	of 1172

Dave, Are you crazy or what? Worthless I don't think so. We might see a little dip here but IMO nothing worth noting if your in it for the long term. A couple things. Any one read the article in WSJ about the Astra-Merck agreement to distribute the drug Prilsosec which treats stomach ulsers. On the outset this might not seem to effect CMTR but it does, drastically. The article mentions that this is the number one drug in the world. Dollar wise. CMTR has just licensed the test Astra-Merck will be marketing to accompany this drug. This is the only test that Astr-Merck will be marketing for H. pylori. Although others have a similar test and with such a wide open market others are sure to hop on the band wagon, doctors will buy from the company they buy the drug from. Right? Another thing that the article mentioned is that Astra has been buying rights to different drugs that the have previously sold and licenses of others. It mentions that they have spent close to 1 billion on acquisitions alone. (Read the article for yourself) With a valuation today according to may calculations. ( stock price x # of shares outstanding including deptitures) the price of the entire company would be somewhere around 15 million. Two potential suitors arise. Would Astra pay such a small amount for the complete control over a license that could mean alot to them? IMO they should! Johnson & Johnson now that they have lost the rights to their test. Would they pay such a small amount for the complete rights to a test almost approved? IMO Yes that could be a very likely move. A question to ponder. How much money has J & J wasted on trying to hold on to their test? Lawyer fees, executives time, etc...? Fifeteen million is a drop in the bucket. If no one takes them over will they go out of business? IMO NO!!!! They have cash and they are recieving more from sales of the cholestrol test and from Astra-Merck. They have enough to survive and push an awsome nation-wide add campaign once approval is obtained. One more word for the wise. We will most likely not see approval from the company for the next 2-3 months. After inspection of CMTR by the FDA there is generally a waiting period. Even if CMTR gets inspected tomorrow it could be a couple months before the annocement we are all waiting for. The short interest doesn't worry me to much. It could actually be helpful. With only approx. 12 million shares outstanding (fully diluted) this is close to 6%. Some might say this is a bad sign. And it very well could be. But if or should I saywhen CMTR makes a positive news release we could see a short squeeze, driving the price up even higher. The shorts will be scrabling to cover. (The best they can with so few shares) The next announcement we should look for is what the sales will be of the H. pylori test "Hp Chek". CMTR will not release any data. The fourth quarter results should be very interesting!! As always, ART

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