Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Janice Shell who wrote (5430)	12/1/1996 7:38:00 PM
From: Jefferson Prescott Dewhurst	of 42771

Hi Janice, <<Actually I can think of nothing more positive for us to do right now than to get REALLY NEGATIVE about NOVL. The worse we think things may become, the more easily we'll be gratified. Not much, but the best I can do. So I'm first: check the charts. Technically, it's ABSOLUTELY HOPELESS. >> (Brief Intro having nothing to do w/NOVL.) I am a first time writer to this discussion having followed it for a few days since joining netcom after leaving compuserve.I find the quality of discussion on this forum much better than the "Investor's Forum" on cserve. The writers here are much more knowledgeable about the particular stock and industry under discussion. About NOVL: I bought into NOVL using '98 Leaps w/strike =$10 in early August when the stock was ~$10.25.Because: A close personal friend was taking a training course in Windows NT Server in which the instructor remarked that Novell's server software was far superior to NT because of the scalability to handle a large # of users. Also, it was reported that a very large industrial customer which had ordered and installed NT throughout the enterprise had had NT removed due to unacceptably poor performance. Subsequent research showed Novell's product line was ~ 2 years ahead of MSFT w/65% current market share.(I doubt this is any surprise to you) A review of the recent price history showed that NOVL's low during the July sell off was ~$10. Also, they had new management(YOUNG) in place and had worked off some of their problems with the old product line.I thought then that NOVL had probably seen the worst and that the downside was very limited. I think your present assessment of NOVL is unnecessarily pessimistic. The TC2000 charting tool I use shows rising RSI/MACD and exp. moving ave. on daily & weekly charts.The recent rise above the 10 wk xma line was on pretty good volume! The fundamental picture is improving as sales & earnings are growing,they have accelerated new product intros. and new management is addressing the problems. I think the turnaround is in place and look for NOVL to move to ~$20 by 7/97. All the buyout talk is just another positive IMHO. I think any buyout would be at least $22/sh. What is it about NOVL's chart that you find troubling? Regards, DEWY

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