|
Let's see ... Lehman Brother's, the day after the AGPH deal, raised its 12-month price target (maybe they meant 12-day) to $18, from $10, yet left the stock rated a "neutral" --- does that seem a little $@%#!$! up to anyone else, or perhaps I am a loon? --- lets think about this (those fans of TA will have to forgive me for the notion of bringing "thought" to investing ... just ignore me and go play with your crayons) --- AGPH is the only company that has truly seen the combination therapy data, and they stepped up with a deal in a BIG WAY ... investment banks like Robby Stevens and Montgomery were touting IMNR back in the early 90s to be a $500 stock ... and lots of other respected Wall Streeters jumped on the bandwagon, only to be violently burned by their own ignorance and over exubberance (not to mention the appeal and arrogance of the brilliant Dr. Jonas Salk) ... the NYT magazine article is not just remotely about IMNR, it is specifically about IMNR and almost exclusively IMNR ... on July 3rd, the "late breaker" data being presented by Dr. Valentine is the data everyone is waiting for, and if it is as strong as I speculate it will be, then you will see all of the Wall Street sheep rushing to the IMNR pastures to graze ... the NYT article might as well have been a jointly sponsored infommercial for AGPH/IMNR as Drs. Valentine, Gallo, et. al are all intimately (not pronounced biblically ... but awfully close) involved with various phases of different Remune trials, and are all (I am missing a few of the names, but it is like 4 or 5 doctors, all mentioned in the article) presenting on behalf of IMNR/AGPH in Geneva. While it seems Remune has the possibility to be a $500MM a year drug, the crazy thing is that some of the people I speak to are more excited about IMNR's Rheumatoid Arthritis drug (which is a $5B a year market vs. $2.5B per year for HIV) which they will probably be able to go it alone on, based on success with Remune, and the ability to raise some cash (as opposed to having to do a marketing relationship like the AGPH deal with respect to Remune) ... of course, we ignore the fact that everyone has been waiting on a gene therapy deal to get done with Schering Plough for a few months now ... hmm, seems to me that this stock should not have gone down on the deal announcement, that the guy from Lehman will be doing a rewrite quite soon, other Wall Street firms will rush in once the data is released, and the stock should settle in the $25-$35 range sometime around the 7/3 presentation ... of course, the possibility remains that a well-crafted media campaign (pronounced BLITZ) could drive the price into the stratosphere, as AGPH is clearly capable of orchestrating such a potent unveiling ... have fun all ... I think we (y'all should probably cover your shorts about NOW!) are going to have some fun on the upside here, but hey --- you never really know ... just one person's view ... Good luck to all! |
