US newborn babies per year 4,000,000. About 10% will be treated with phototherapy (a little high), but less assume one test two babies and one gets treated, then it is 20% x 4,000,000/100 = 800,000. Plus some 50,000 Canadian babies.
850,000 x 4 tests ( some babies will be fine with one or two tests, treated babies will have 6 to 7. maybe more for both figures since it will be easier to test with the Colormate and presumably cheaper (not less margin for the company) = 3,200,000 tests for NorthAmerica a year.
The 16,000,000 tests a year probably are including all older children and adult tests which will not be a market for the Colormate, unless they developed new technology to differentiate direct and indirect bilirubin, which for now it is not the case.
3,200,000 x $6 per test (reasonable) and assuming a nice 66% margin = $19,200,000 x 66% = $12,672,000 earnings /14,000,000 shares = $0.91 per share. Assuming complete penetrance of the market in three years, and no SPRX competition (or a minor one),no extra shares and a marketing partner.
The devices at $3,000 each x 4,000 ( hospitals newborn units average of a 1000 deliveries per year, of course some have 5,000 deliveries others just couple of hundreds)pediatric ERs will share the device since they need it one or twice a week, private pediatricians will send the babies to the ER as usual, home health maybe one machine will be sold, again to the ER.. $12,000,000 over three years of market penetrance, so this is $4,000,000 a year this divided by number of shares = $ 0.29 Oh I forgot the Canadian newborn units add couple of hundreds of devices.
0.91 + 0.29 = $1.12 x PE 20 = $24 in year 2001 per NorthAmerica only.
Counting the whole world one can make the case for $48 in 2001.
$8 for end of 1998 (assuming marketing agreement, Asensio fear dissipates, plus initial sales at end of year).
$16 for end or 1999
$24 for end of 2000
$48 for end of 2001
Just on the Colormate and TLC. Other technologies I do not count with them period.
Asensio short term attack was ferocious, but long term CCSI could survive pretty well.
Not a short. Not a long.
CAVEAT: Corrections welcome this are just gross calculations. All the disclaimers apply. Invest or short at your own risks. |
