I agree that it's a good time to short some internet plays. That being said, I feel pretty good about VRSN here -- the company's recently announced alliances are pretty significant, especially that involving NETA. VRSN has amassed a very impressive clientele in a short time period, including U.S. West, Texas Instruments, Sumitomo Bank, the U.S. gov't and Kodak, to name a few.
Getting back to my favorite internet shorts -- today I bought some LCSO puts. Of the big 4 issps (internet search and service providers), I believe LCOS to big the most vulnerable. SEEK has a high floor w/ the DIS investment. YHOO is the juggernaut. XCIT has a decent brand-name and is pining for a big-time investor. LCOS may still be looking for a buyer, but CMGI is a big holder and unless they sell to a TWX a major media co. investment is unlikely. Moreover, while YHOO is garnering major alliance and licensing revenues and XCIT provides intranet/web site searching capabilities, LCOS has no cognizable source of additional revenue momentum. I believe that LCOS has the highest valuation of the 3 not including YHOO. Shorting powerhouses AOL or AMZN is just stupid. I'd also consider SPLN and CNWK. CMGI would be more vulnerable w/o GeoCities coming public soon. |
