Art, I think we are still in a bull market in general and right now I do not see a bear market in the US. However, the SEMI segment is, IMHO, still in a bear market and I view the current rally as a rally in a bear market (for the semi). If we break the long term down channel of the SOX (currently at around 290/305 or so), then I may change my opinion.
From a fundamental point of view, this segment still has world-wide excess capacity, and until either demand soaks this excess capacity, or some capacity is taken permanently off line, I do not see the end of the bear move. The best would be a combination of both, but for demand to increase substantially, Japan must get out of its recession and drag Asia out of its "depression". Visibility that this process is underway may take quite some time, and the bottom should be in before it is evident that the turn has occurred.
Zeev |
