Intel 2H WAG
In the PC segment, (based on a number of Industry guesses), it appears about 50 million PC's will ship in 2H.
Assuming Intel gets 90% market share, I get 45 million PMMX, PII and Celeron CPU's shipping into this segment.
Of these, I think 35 million will be "Performance" CPU's and 10 million will be "Basic" CPU's. These estimates are based on about 1/3 Home PC's being "Basic" product and 20% of Biz PC's being "Basic". (Note, the 20% in the biz segment is based on a recent survey published in the WSJ showing 1 in 5 PC's in the Biz segment being "Basic" PC's, (sub-0's), now versus 1 in 50 in January).
Extrapolating current and future pricing, I estimate the ASP for 2H in this segment to be under $215. (Note, this is based on current and projected 1000 piece unit prices extrapolated for what I think OEM prices for the product will be).
I estimate revenues for CPU's into the PC segment will be less than $10 billion, with total revenues for 2H <$14 Billion.
Consequently, I think net profits for 2H will be <$3 Billion. This equates to about $1.60 EPS for 2H and around $3.10 for the year. Based on this, I think Intel will remain in the current trading range of $70-$80 for at least another quarter.
More important to the stock price will be Intel 2H guidance in the CC. Based on current conditions I don't look for strong bullish words from management.
This is a WAG! |
