Gottfried, If we did hit the bottom at $26, which would have been a double bottoon two weeks ago, and previous the last of December 1997, then we are going up. With the price this week hitting $32 and the slight pull back I see today, I see that we may have some consolidation back to at least $29 before moving up again to possibly $35 in Tito's stairstep scenario. IMO, the bear resistance line in a few days after consolidation will be around $35. When it breaks $35, IMO, I believe AMAT will move to the next resistance level at $39, its previous highs in April and May. Once it breaks that level then it will continue to move up in stairstep fashion.
I come to this conclusion based on what CEO Morgan stated in his TV appearance yesterday when he implied that AMAT could start having a turn around later this year carrying over into next year. He stated that once one SEMI equipment starts buying then the other equipment makers jump on board just to keep from being left behind. FEAR, of loss of profits and revenues (sales) can be a tremendous driving force and makes scence to me. IMO, once we have one major equipment maker on board then "Katie bar the door" because the train has left the station. Also, we have to remember, that the market looks 6 - 9 months ahead with the SEMI's stocks.
Just my $.02. |
