Bucks:
Having read, enjoyed, and learned from your posts here over the past few years, I can tell you that we hold very similar views as to how the whole marketplace of ideas on the thread ought to work both in theory and in practice.
As to my return to the underground culture of lurking, the fact is that most of my knowledge about AMAT and the industry as a whole is derivative of you and others here on the thread. Were I to hit upon some original piece of knowledge or insight, I would gladly resurface and pass it along. In the meantime, my self-perceived role here on the thread is to intermitently resurface to seek clarification of the views of those more knowledgeable than I. To wit, you may remember when I questioned your previous stock price predictions and uncovered the "split-adjusted" issue with respect to Gottfried's chart. Sure I have my opinions and hopes for the stock, but not enough confidence in them to trumpet to the world every day. Think about it Bucks, isn't an atheist really an arrogant agnostic?
So Bucks, let me press you a bit on your revised predictions. You don't really see AMAT soaring as high as $120 in 1999 anymore, do you?
What's the new outlook? When do you see the inevitable upside surge occurring? How soon, how far, how high? Be the atheist for me. Let me ask you this: the industry success in 1997 was largely premised on .25 upgrades rather than adding new capacity. Given AMAT's assessment that only 25% or so of existing equipment is at .25 micron, can we have another successful "bridge" year even before the glories of the 300mm conversion are realized?
Best wishes, and keep those metaphors coming. |
