Aldila will be competition for ZOLT.
Both companies will be suppliers of large tow. Aldila brings an advantage of having a large captive market ala Hexcel and Toray in small tow. Don't be naive and think that Aldila won't go and compete in ZOLT's markets. The bigger issue is the fact that someone who doesn't even make carbon fiber today is going to be up and running in one year with a large tow factory. As I've said many times in the past, ZOLT will not be alone in this market. Watch for more large tow expansions announced in the next few months. A few guesses, Akzo, Toray, Monsanto? This market segment is going to get real crowded very soon.
Don't view this as my endorsement of Aldila. Personally, I think they've made a big mistake in the near term. Their business today is 100% supported by Hexcel, Toray and Akzo. These companies are not going to help them out very much while they wait for their own carbon fiber line to be up and running. Near term Aldila is in trouble.
Tuvilo, as far as the cost of modifying the Hungarian acrylic plant, there is a bigger question first: Can you make carbon fiber precursor from the DuPont Mavilon technology? No one else has successfully made carbon fiber precursor using this acrylic technology. If you can, my guess is that the chemical side of the process will have to add filters and purification hardware while the spinning side will probably have to be completely replaced. Lots of time and money. This is why even Zoltek is saying Q3 1998 is the target cutoff.
By the way, I now have a copy of the Merrill Lynch Equity Report on Zoltek dated 9/27. They opened coverage with an accumulate rating for both intermediate and long term. I will offer some details later.
Best of luck to all.
Flyguy. |
