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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ)
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To: David S. who wrote (19479)6/27/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: Jean-Philippe Chevalier  Read Replies (2) of 31646
 
David,

I find this to be the most profound post that I have read on SI for several days. In my opinion, such as is is, TAVA is toast as some point around 1/1/2000. (This is assuming they don't find another means of subsistence before the problem goes away. I realize that all the work may not be completed by 1/1/2000, but the extent of the revenues will be much easier to define and will be limited. It would not be prudent to bet on a Y10K revival.)

That said, the identification of companies who have worked a plan (hopefully successful) would provide a fruitful area of investing. It seems to me that the real low hanging fruit will be picked by investing in such companies. Furthermore, companies should be compared with their industry peers because there are no big gains to investing in a company that is essentially Y2K equivalent to their peers. This may be a successful hedge against potential losses, but as I see it the objective would be to invest in a company that appears to have a Y2K advantage against their direct competition. This may be easier said than done as I would expect industry leaders to try to cover competitors actions whenever possible. I still think there will be ample opportunity to find situations where there is a clear industry leader on Y2K issues. Now the tough part will be in identifying those stocks. It will be increasingly more important to do so as we approach the 1/1/2000 date and unless there is a rush to invest in Y2K quality within an industry, any move into these positions can be made late in 1999 with substantial gains resulting. Of course I have also considered the prudence in mattressing my capital just in case the market or my broker has a Y2K puke. What then?

I too do not profess to be a Y2K expert. So where do we go from here? It seems for the moment that all the Y2Kers are euphoric over the TAVA jump on Friday.

Don
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