g'day JPN - I m not that keen on currency movement, let alone yen, to do any specific forecast [although I gather your query is not addressed to me per se, so probably insightful folks here can answer that.]
One thing from your post that caught my eyes is the one publication you ve alluded to. While whoever who did the analysis may indeed have special insight, which can be scrutinized based on the arguments [premises and conclusion] presented, the financial universe tends to have a lot of what I called "single instance verification." That is to say, if so-and-so forecasts an event comes to past with somewhat accuracy once, then its predictive power is somewhat believeable. While I sometimes tend to see the world that way also, IMHO, it is more important to see on what ground does it believe the yen to dollar rate is 260 by 2002.
best, Bosco |
