C.K. HOUSTON: ENGINEERS, CONFERENCES, MEDIA ...
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In response to this post & article:
Message 5042951
Ken,
The article WAS interesting. Confirmed what I told the audience in Washington D.C. last week. Some engineers even argue amongst themselves about these issues. Ones who discount or try to minimize the problem are usually looking at it from a VERY narrow, limited perspective based on their personal experience.
I hate when people keep on using the elevator, microwave, VCR, planes falling from sky example. Planes won't fall from the sky, they just won't fly on and shortly after Jan 1, 2000. I don't care about microwaves, VCR's or even elevators.
Embedded chips and most stand-alone embedded systems are NOT the problem. When they become integrated with larger, more complex systems ... THAT's where the problem exists.
Some long-timers might remember my story about the gas transmission plant here in Texas. I met the plant manager, who's an engineer and who was also was involved with building the plant 10 years ago, at a cocktail party at my house at the time of the 2nd TAVA conference call ... the GOOD one! Just prior to that, I put together C.K. HOUSTON's TAVA Research Report.
It includes manufacturing news articles and specific examples of data from the Plant Y2kOne database. I gave a little presentation about embedded systems and how TAVA fits in with the picture. Passed out half of my "research" report. Didn't have time to xerox the whole thing.
A week or so later, I get a call from this guy. He wanted to thank me for "saving" his company. Something in the report triggered something that he could directly relate to ... don't know what. This whole embedded system thing is pretty complex and certain specific problems are more prevalent from industry to industry.
In any event, he got his engineering and plant management group together and realized they had a BIG problem. He called up the head of a $20mil engineering firm who they work with and who does much of the major work for their plant. Asked, "Do we have a Year 2000 problem." He was assured, "NO." Then Paul asks him to check out whatever. Guy checks it out. Calls Paul back up. Paul asks, "OK, do we have a Year 2000 problem?" Here's what I remember SPECICALLY what Paul told me: "There was dead silence on the other end of the phone." They did have a Y2K problem (and not a small one), which they are now addressing. And, they're looking for others.
I told Paul I didn't "save" the company. I still don't know specifically what the trigger was. Most companies WILL survive. Productivity and profitably would have adversely been impacted if they didn't get a grasp on Y2K embedded systems issues, and start doing something about it now. Then again, I understand manufacturing and supply chain better than I do gas transmission ... so who knows? Maybe I did "save" the company, but doubt it.
I've sat in "after hours" sessions at technical conferences. There are engineers who are desperate to share information with other engineers. Because of concern re: litigation, many can't openly share info.
So, these sessions are not normally "scheduled" as part of the overall conference. Though there might be an announcement like, "There will be an impromptu gathering after today's meeting, who so & so is willing to moderate for anyone who might be interested."
Sessions are very similar to reporters talking with someone "off the record". I'm not an engineer. I sure admire these guys/gals trying to work around restraints trying to learn about and fix the problem. Especially when you've been sitting in an 7-8 hr conference, and now you're voluntarily involved with an "impromptu" session which can last several hours. There's a camaraderie amongst these guys/gals that's very admirable. Engineers are usuually not political players, they're "problem solvers".
In any event, last month I sat in on an "after hours" session ... and THIS is what I found MOST interesting: Certain problems, at different levels, are more prevalent in certain industries than others.
In the session I was involved with, there were groups of engineers from various companies in the following industries: oil & gas, paper & pulp, automotive, food, utilities (big/small - generation/distribution) & misc.
Someone from one industry could say "Here's where we're finding major problems. We don't see any major issues with blah, blah". Then someone from a different industry would say, "We're having the opposite problem." That's why these sessions, which initially were going to be short ... became long.
EVERYONE agrees the percentage of technical problems, in relation to number of embedded chips and systems is relatively small. I have heard anywhere from 2-14% failure rate ... and have read HIGHER percentages at technical sites on the internet. Some failures create minor problems. Some failures create MAJOR problems.
What I've repeatedly heard: the BEST failure ... is a TOTAL failure ... because you know immediately you have problems ... instead of finding out later when bad product is produced (and possibly disributed) and/or when safety hazards occur and ....
But, ALL agree the ramifications, because of integration, is BIG. Cascading effect internally is what the engineers focus on primarily. Vulnerability of supply chain AND even their end customers (from a business standpoint) is the BIG unknown ... which can create further, bigger problems.
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MY COMMENTS Engineers are primarly entrusted to look at and oversee technical issues involved with the proper functioning of a plant and/or. And rightly so. They were hired for their engineering and technical expertise. Their expertise is primarly in engineering/technology - not finance, marketing, management, sales, etc.).
The EXCEPTIONAL ones who have this full-range of knowledge are managing at top levels. They are few and far between.
No one should (particularly top management, officers and directions) look at this whole Y2K problems as just a "technical" issue ... and in isolation. It's a business issue ... which can hit production, sales, suppliers, stockholders, etc. IT SHOULD NOT BE VIEWED IN A TECHNICAL VACUUM. Sadly, IMHO - this is not what is occurring.
Amazes me that some officers/directors STILL don't yet realize ... they can be personally liable. I heard that last year. But, it was reinterated at the "Liability & Risk Assessment" conference last week.
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KEN, I found this quote from the author of the article you wrote particularly interesting:
<Where is the concern? I've found that the people making the most noise about the millennium crisis are the people who have the most to gain.>
I beg to differ with the author. They guy obviously has a narrow "technical" focus, only reads mass media, and doesn't attend any of the Y2K conferences (which unfortunately at $1,200-$1,600 a pop limits participation for those who could benefit), and specifically those modules on "embedded systems". 95%+ of those speaking are manufacturing & process control INDUSTRY people ... NOT consulting and engineering firms addressing the Y2K embedded system problem.
If he wants to know about specific companies and failures ... this is where he'd hear about them. Not in the mass media.
There are a helluva lot of IT/IS/MIS consulting firms ... but hardly any relating specifically to "embedded systems". Sure there are are engineering/consulting firms, systems integrators, etc. But when it comes specifically to companies focused and/or experienced with Y2K embedded systems problems in manufacturing and process control ... they are few and far between.
When I was in D.C. last week, I met briefly with Congressman Horn, who asked for my card and asked me to contact his top guy on the technology committee. We'll be in contact. Don't know what will come of it. I can't keep on doing things for free. We'll see.
In any event, Horn recognizes the need to get more people/companies involved with research and testifying before his committee SPECIFICALLY on embedded systems issues. He now does understand that this is an ENGINEERING issue and not only a PROGRAMMING issue. Unfortunately, his committee, as well as most others in business (and financial analysts) have understanding and expertise primarly in IT end.
Will see what happens. I hope I can make a contribution. But, who knows?
Cheryl
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