I have no idea. It is no secret that I am disappointed by the performance of this stock, and that I think the fundamentals indicate a considerably better price than we have yet seen. It seems, however, that the perception in the investment community is that Sun is engaged in a battle for survival with Wintel that Sun isn't likely to win. (I attended a presentation by a respected analyst of high-tech stocks not long ago at which almost that view was presented; more precisely, he said that it seemed unwise to take on Microsoft. I don't think he expressed a direct opinion about the likely winner of such a competition, so perhaps he meant only that the uncertainty was undesirable.) I think the perception that Sun must necessarily lose is incorrect, and that at worst both camps will survive; at best Sun will capture markets currently served by Wintel (as well as IBM mainframes -- already happening, I suspect). I believe capturing even a fairly small fraction of IBM's (or the Wintel community's, for that matter) business would double Sun's revenues.
I don't think last year's (or any other year's) performance has any particular bearing on what the stock will do this year. To state the obvious, a good earnings report in July would probably help!
I'm not a believer in technical analysis, but I, too, had noticed the seeming trend of higher lows. I don't think it means much.
JMHO, of course. |
