Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 148.32

-3.3%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Stitch who wrote (6051)	6/28/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) of 10921

Stitch, sorry that it has taken me so long to respond, but we had to go hiking (for the last time) yesterday since we had a brief window of sunny weather. Anyway, two things: (1) I talked to Takeshi last night in it looks like the LTC-Sumitomo merger will go through. Takeshi's comment on it was, "now they can take two (relatively) smaller inefficient banks and make one larger inefficient bank." (2) About Mr. Yen's comments: several points... (a) I do not know the actual size of Japan's foreign reserves (to prop up the yen) or the amount of Japan's total capital reserves (to buy up the bad debt currently held by Japanese banks), so I do not know the ability of Japan to "use its money and its strength to revive Japan." I do wonder if they could so easily do these things why they haven't done it so far, and how sitting on immense capital reserves is going to revive the Japanese economy. (b) These comments are not exactly the "we don't have a problem" kind of denial that we've been hearing for the last 9 months, but does sound suspiciously like it since in essence what Mr. Yen is saying is, "yes, there's a problem but we can fix it anytime we want to." That also sounds suspiciously like the kind of things an alcoholic says about quitting drinking. I find it very interesting that (i) all of the comments of this kind come from Japanese officials, (ii) NO westerner associated with or knowledgeable of the Japanese economic scene has anything but the most dire predictions about it, and (iii) the Japanese have this face-saving denial oriented culture. I am still not sinking any money (but a tiny amount) into long equity positions in semis or oil until I see some kind of light at the end of the tunnel in Japan. jess.

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