CNBC RUN-UP
=======================================================
Most daytraders, shorts and people who have been investing on their own (primarly on the internet), already know this pattern of "buying into" and "trading at" or "out of event". So, if you're a "long", be prepared just in case "event" pattern occurs.
I agree with this assessment in the following post, of what will occur Monday. Hope it doesn't pull back as far as Copeland projects, but it's a possibility.
Message 5041413
Would be nice if this didn't happen, but it's generally the case. Even I will do some trading at this point. I personally would not encourage my friends/family to buy Monday, ESPECIALLY on margin. I could be wrong. I'm not a mind-reader. Long & mid-term I still see TAVA as a winner. But right now it will be a daytrader's delight, and after CNBC run-up .. also a "shorts" delight. There will be many getting short positions at opening Monday.
This is also why we're also going to see "shorts" here EVEN MORE than before. Saw some of Mr. Pink's cronies talking back & forth today, seemingly in a measured and somewhat logical manner ... Large, orchestrated "shorts" do a "good cop - bad cop routine".
Gotta watch out for these guys. READ PROFILES & SOME PREVIOUS POSTS ON OTHER THIS AND OTHER THREADS. - even if someone seemingly sounds reasonable. Some start out with posts that gain your attention and trust ... and then turn on you real fast. Sometimes it's justified. Often it's not. These guys can be pretty smooth. People who've been around know and understand this. Newbies don't. Non-SI members are at a REAL disadvantage since they can't access profiles and past post. SIGH Always good to know your neighbors on the net and elsewhere.
For people who want to learn about trading & stock manipulation, read this:
Message 3852392
"Re-Wind" is actually a GOOD friend of mine. He trades and shorts ... but doesn't do these "mind games" on the internet as some do. He likes to play on a level playing field, and doesn't like the little guys to get screwed ... ergo the "Re-Wind Post".
NOW FOR GOOD NEWS - TAVA MADE 3RD CUT ON RUSSELL 3000!!
Message 5041571
FORTUNE ARTICLE - FEATURING TAVA:
Message 4026039
If you haven't read it ... read it now. If you've read it before. Read it again.
Because I plan to be out the market in '99, I won't be able to take advantage of new IRS laws on long-term gains with any stock I'm currently holding. I'm already in the maximum short-term capital gains tax bracket - YECH. So, I have to try to maximize profits and will now take advantage of some (usually obvious) trading opportunities around a core position. This does NOT change my long-term outlook with TAVA. And, I will definitely NOT be day-trading.
I'm hoping to have a larger TAVA position than now, in the ensuing weeks. Institutions may come in after pullback from this run-up. Doubt they'd come in during a run-up. But, then again ... institutions may wait until after earnings. Who knows? If we did, we'd ALL be rich.
If we got a PR release announcing a large, solid contract in the immediate future, TAVA could run-up more and faster. TAVA sometimes does things when we least expect it. That's why I've never wanted to trade TAVA in the past. Really hate to do it even now, but with my exit strategy from the market in general and my tax situation, I feel have to take the risk in order to meet my financial objectives. Keeping my fingers crossed that I'm making the right decision.
I also started to buy positions in several Y2K stocks a few weeks ago. Buying into earnings and selling prior to or at earnings (with good, solid companies) has been successful for me in the past. I don't do this arbitrarily. I only do it with several of the same Y2K related companies I have researched and been involved with over the past 2 years, and continue to follow. Could very likely do the same upon/around TAVA earnings. Haven't decided. But, it is a possibility. If I do ... I will NOT make an announcement. I don't want people to think I know more than I do. I DON'T. And, I don't get engaged in private email discussing buy/sell strategies and price projections. (If you email me for my opinion ... now or down the road ... you'll get THIS post.)
I don't like to make projections on stock price or give advice about trading. This is the infrequent and LAST time I'll make any comments in this regard. However, this CNBC run-up is a classic ... unless it's followed by a meaningful PR release. Which I don't think will happen, but which IS a possibility. If that happened ... it's a DIFFERENT ballgame.
Just my game plan now. Subect to change.
I am NOT suggesting that anyone do what I may or may not do. Just thought I'd share my thoughts. I might even have some "longs" who get mad at me for making this post.
I wrote this primarly for the benefit of "longs" who don't trade (and don't have time to track patterns), new investors, and people who have recently started to handle their own investments thru internet trading or discount brokers, and still aren't aware of certain general patterns which exist.
I'M DEFINITELY NOT AN EXPERT IN THE STOCKMARKET. Keep that it mind. I understand Y2K and particularly embedded systems. I've done EXTREMELY well with MY investments. I spend a LOT of time researching, tracking & watching. Maybe I'm just lucky. Maybe I know what I'm doing? WHO KNOWS?? I'm still learning about the stock market, as many of us are. Some of which I've been learning about the market and human nature (thru these threads), makes me extremely disillusioned and cynical.
Everyone has different investment goals, tax situations and risk tolerance. No one should blindly follow ANYONE on these threads. Be serious about investing. It's YOUR money. Do your OWN due diligence, don't rely on others. Make every attempt to learn who to trust on these threads. If you're a SI member and see new people on threads you follow ... take the time to check their profile and, most importantly, scan some of their recent posts on other threads. You'll learn a lot.
Anyone who's known me for a while, knows I've been worried about the market in general, and have been since last fall. I never like fourth quarters. Rarely take any risks then. Some may make a killing then. I've never been comfortable with risk/reward ratio then.
My intention since the fall of '96 has always been to be out of the market by or sometime in '99. I started managing much of my investment portfolio on my own in '96 with this in mind. Y2K was the catalyst, then and now, for me to do this.
Some people depend on me TOO much and/or follow me TOO religiously. Makes me uncomfortable. I don't want to feel responsible for other's investment strategies and entry/exit points. I will continue to share what information I can about the industry ... rarely about TAVA specifically. Though at times there may be a tie-in.
I don't want to be a pawn for market makers, traders or shorts. I thought it was important to share my thoughts.
I have other obligations and do not have the luxury of time to post as frequently as I have in the past.
Good luck,
Cheryl
P.S. Please do NOT ask for suggestions on recommended Y2K stocks to "buy into earnings". All of what I acquired 2 weeks ago has already run-up appreciably. I believe they'll still do well and there's still profit potential. But it's riskier now. There's still up-side potential, but there will also be pullbacks. Some can deal with it. Some can't. I don't want to be involved.
|
