I posted this on Yahoo, in response to whether Jefferies would still provide coverage given that they have downgraded some oil drillers (but downgraded to accumulate - and I would be happy with an accumulate right now from Jefferies.
If Jefferies does provide coverage after earnings it will be interesting and very important what they say about Eco. First, remember that Jefferies just put their name behind Eco in the bond deal. Second, Eco is probably getting more of its current income from gas related projects (e.g., Sable) rather than oil related projects - and look at the current link below.
Anyway, it doesn't look like Eco is presenting at the NYSSA which is unfortunate. However, it will be interesting to see what sort of block trades we see on Eco in the next couple weeks. It might be a sign of whether a rec is indeed coming. Unfortunately, I haven't heard anyone expect more than 15 cents this quarter.
eia.doe.gov
look under forcasts, then natural gas
Here are some relevant excerpts
Substantial planned increase in pipeline capacity between the United States and Canada is underway. U.S. imports of natural gas, primarily from Canada, are forecast in the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) to increase from 2.9 to 5.2 trillion cubic feet between 1995 and 2020, with more than half the increase occurring by 2000. Most of the capacity expansion needed to support the increase between now and 2000 is either already under construction or in the planning stages. Although year-to-date 1997 figures reflect little increase, imports are expected to expand as planned capacity comes on line.
In all three North American countries electric utility sector restructuring is either underway or under consideration, and the primary driving force behind the projected increases in natural gas consumption is its use as a fuel for electricity generation. In EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) reference case, natural gas consumption in the U.S. electricity generation sector almost triples between 1995 and 2020, from 3.4 trillion cubic feet a year in 1995 to 9.9 trillion cubic feet in 2020. The increase stems from expectations of expanded utilization of existing gas-fired power plants, additions of new turbines and combined-cycle facilities, and the opening up of new opportunities for gas-fired generation as a result of restructuring in the electric utility industry. Although the greatest anticipated increase in U.S. natural gas consumption is in the electricity generation sector, increases are also projected for all the end-use sectors.
The Canadian Gas Association (CGA) expects strong growth in Canadian natural gas consumption for power generation, projecting that consumption in the power generation sector will more than double between 1997 and 2010, from about 158 billion cubic feet in 1997 to 321 billion cubic feet in 2010. The strongest growth is expected between now and 2001, as electricity sector restructuring takes hold. The CGA indicates that its forecast is heavily influenced by the restructuring of the electricity sector that is currently either underway or anticipated in many provinces. While growth in gas use in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to slow as a result of conservation and efficiency improvements, the CGA still anticipates modest growth for those sectors as well [4].
Infrastructure expansion is both underway and expected to continue throughout North America to meet increasing demand. More than 40 pipeline construction projects, including 10 new pipelines, were completed in the United States in 1997, adding more than 6.6 billion cubic feet per day of capacity [6]. The AEO98 projects continued expansion of interstate pipeline capacity between now and 2020, with the biggest increases along corridors that move Canadian and Gulf Coast supplies to markets in the eastern half of the United States. Increases in storage capacity are projected for most regions of the United States. A considerable increase in pipeline capacity both within Canada and between Canada and the United States is expected to provide access to western Canadian supplies and Sable Island supplies in the offshore Atlantic, significantly enhancing the possibilities for trade between the United States and Canada. |
