From James Flanagan's writings and his May 98 Past, Present, and Futures newsletter. James does a lot of interesting work with Gann time cycles.
>>> Gann discovered that the future is a repetition of the past based upon a natural order. "Everything moves in cycles as a result of the natural law of action and reaction. By a study of the past I have discovered what cycles repeat in the future. In order to be accurate in forecasting the future you must know the major cycles." These Master Time Factor cycles, as you will see, are not like traditional periodic cycles.
Gann discovered that the numbered years of each decade (1991 = "1", 1992 = "2", 1993 = "3") exhibited characteristics and attributes which repeated from one decade to the next. In other words, 1997 would demonstrate a similar price pattern to 1907 (90-year cycle, 1937 (60-year cycle), 1947 (50-year cycle) and so on. Gann specified that the 60 year cycle bore properties which rendered it more weighty than the others. In the decade of the 1990's, the comparable decade would be the 1930's. Gann referred to this as the 60 year "Great Cycle". "This is the greatest and most important cycle of all which repeats every 60
years or at the end of the third 20 year cycle". The inflation from 1971 to 1980 was almost identical to the inflation from 1911 to 1920. The deflation from 1980 to 1993 has been almost identical to the deflation from 1920 to 1933. This 60-year cycle is one of the cyclic driving forces that will culminate in 1999 and the one you must be aware of for the next 2 years.<<<<
>>>> We have just celebrated the 30-year anniversary of the start of gold trading on the London Metals Exchange. Prior to 1968,the price had been fixed at $35.00 an ounce since 1933. On January 9, 1968, the first modest fluctuations in price began. The fact that our low was made on January 13,1998, confirms that this is a critical cycle for us to watch. As you can see in the weekly chart (not shown), these were the preliminary stages which preceded the start of a long-term bull market which would ultimately culminate in the advance to $850 an ounce in January 1980.
Returning to the chart, you can see that the final low during this 30-year cycle was not made until January 1, 1970. The final low in the silver was not made until November 3, 1971. The implication is that after the current advances are complete (the April 98 high), gold and silver will decline to new generational lows approximately 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 years from now. It would be off these lows that the next huge inflationary bull market in the precious metals will take place.
Over the short term...as you can see from the weekly London gold chart, price established an intermediate top on May 21, 1968, corrected until July 17, 1968, then resumed the advance to the final top on March 10, 1969.<<<
>>> Both the 30 and 60-year cycles are projecting the start of a major inflationary advance within the next 2 years<<< |
