TB; RE:" Breakout "
>Jury did it again. Look at BA. If that wasn't a bullish breakout,
I need to go back to the books...
Yeah, he's got a pretty channel on his weekly chart, don't he?
>IMHO the S&P breakout above 1120 was significant. I'd like to see a confirmed retest. Alas, the DJIA did not participate...
Then we're seeing the same thing - the DJIA just went to the top of it's DownTrend channel; the OEX has broken up out of a rectangular box - like trading range. Logically, we would expect the OEX to piddle around here, without going back to ~525 again, then the "Summer Rally" begins after 04-JULY holiday.
Should we break down, ( OEX 520 ) on some retracement, though - I'd say this last updraft was an end-of-quarter spike before a vicious down cycle. Asia (EWJ EWH EWM EWS) or Russia (TRF) or GM or, some kind of rise in the CRB commodities/cost of living are examples of rationales for another weak quarter...
...though a recovery in commodities could also buoy the cyclicals and other turtles. A lot of these AA-like industrials peak their cash flows during QTR III.
DRG.X at ~680, I have the upside target at 715~720 and the downside support at 640-645.
TYX.X Treasuries at 5.63% I have resistance at 5.6%, support at 5.72% and a near-term target of 5.5% But I would not understand yields dropping to 5.5% with commodities going up - unless bondz were driven by another "flight to quality" frenzy. The short and medium bondz look weird now that the long bond is so strong.
Good Morning, TraderBerney (^_^)
-Steve |
