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Non-Tech : Holts Cigar (HOLT)
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To: Don Westermeyer who wrote (9)6/29/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: Boyd Hinds   of 25
 
Several weeks ago, when MPP announced that it was going to miss its
numbers due to higher than expected inventory levels, I decided to
compare HOLT to MPP in Sales growth, Inventory, and A/R growth.

HOLT has recently released its 1997-8 10K. The numbers are as
follows:

FY97 vs FY98 1997Q4
Sales Growth +68% -18%
Inventory Growth +34% + 4%
A/R Growth + 7% - 5%

It looks like there is a traditional seasonal slowdown in cigar sales
in Holt's fourth quarter. Sequential sales were down, but inventory
and A/R growth were up or down less. That part of the picture is
disturbing, but the long term trends look better. It is often
difficult to determine ST trends in Inventory and A/R growth, so
perhaps the full year numbers are a more reliable indication of
company stability.

Either way, the next earnings report should go a long way to help out
this stock in a very bleak premium cigar stock sector. Here's hoping
its a stronger than expected report!
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