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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 208.49

-1.2%

12:32 PM EST

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To: Stimpson J. Cat who wrote (49376)	6/29/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) of 61433

I'll always go the opposite of the industry pundits. They are invariably wrong when they take a stance. That's why most of them have vague opinions. Actually I was kidding around. You really believe that ATM switching revenues will surpass PBX and layer 3 routing/switching sales?...regardless of what industry luminaries say??? RU Serious? They sell to both enterprise and carriers (ASND is carrier only) Yes, but my point was that carrier sales are relatively invulnerable to recessions while corporate isn't. And Cisco's main revenue is from corporate. You apparently forgot last summer's carrier slowdown. And, what of Asia right now? Are they still buying. There are many more corporate customers scattered over the world than there are carriers. Are you making a case that all markets for all products slow down at the same time? Oil, Retail, Manufacturing, Biotech, Durable Goods, Insurance, etc. etc.. I suspect it's more likely to see a slow down in one industry than it is to see a slowdown in mulitple. This of course would leave ASND a bit more exposed than Cisco. Cisco succeeds in encroaching on ASND's bread and butter (ATM switching)where will ASND go? Good question. Another would be if ASND ATM/MPLS succeeds in encroaching in Cisco's carrier routing networks, where will CSCO recover the revenue from? Well, first I think ASND hasn't made a case for winning business from Cisco in this space whereas Cisco has in the ATM switching space with Sprint. Second, it's becoming fairly clear that in order for carriers to deploy value added services that layer 3 is required as some point (thus ASND's MPLS approach). However, in order for these services to truely work the network must be able to be throttled dependent upon the application each user is actively using. It's not enough to to simply throw up some bandwidth simply dependent upon IP. Mark those words. OG

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