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Technology Stocks : General Magic
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To: Ray Rueb who wrote (2549)6/30/1998 4:05:00 AM
From: Rubber Man  Read Replies (1) of 10081
 
You're right about the indecision. I've been looking at the premiums of the Feb options but it's the date I'm uncomfortable with. Five months from now is December (when the debentures can start converting), January/February in my view is right in the eye of the storm to come.

The way I figured is that by January there will be nearly two quarters of recognized revenue from Portico. If over-enthusiastic investors bid up the stock from the initial numbers, the convertible shareholders may lose their near-guaranteed short profit. Obviously they can't allow that. So by the time January/February blows around, those investors will be doing everything in their powers to drive down the stock and convert.

Why do I seem so sure that these investors prefer shorting? Here's my take on "their plan" ;)

Short scenario:
Bring price up to $19.
Short 6 million shares @ $19.
Bring price down to $5, or as close to it as they can.
Cover 6 million shares ($30M / $5 floor) @ $5.
Profit = $14/share, $84M.

If they were to extract the same profit from a converted long position (converting 1.5M shares at $19 and change) GMGC share price must nearly appreciate to $75/share, which would value GMGC at over $2.5 billion! This is indeed possible but improbable for a non-internet stock to climb so high, so fast.

So for $84M, I would think they rather whiplash the shareholders around then to wait for us to bid up the stock to $75. I wouldn't mind holding and waiting for $75, but if I can pick up some GMGC in the meantime at $5...
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