Sorry if this was already posted...Rick Cowles & Utilities
Oklahoma Utilities Expect to Stay on Line as 2000 Arrives
By Bob Vandewater, The Daily Oklahoman
Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
Jun. 29--Officials with Oklahoma's biggest electric and gas utilities
say they are confident they can maintain uninterrupted service to customers
in the minutes, days and months after 2000 begins.
Any doubts by others seem to stem mostly from forecasts of trouble
ranging from minor malfunctions to total shutdowns ofdate-sensitive systems
dependent on computers that may misinterpret the change to a year ending in
"00."
The reason is that many computer systems originally were designed to
identify a year by only two digits the century, "19," was implied. Unless
that problem is fixed, many analysts fear computers might interpret the
rollover to 01/01/00 to be an error that could cause programs to stop running
or give bad data.
An interruption of some services might be inconvenient. But a loss of
electric or gas service for indeterminate amounts of time, especially in
winter, could be chaotic or even catastrophic. Moreover, if computer owners
have fixed their own Year 2000 problem, that fix may be of little benefit if
the electricity to the computer is off.
Rick Cowles, New Jersey-based author of "Electric Utilities and Y2K,"
said, "In our industrialized and techno-oriented society, the mere
possibility of being without power for an extended period of time is clearly
a scary thought. No lights, no heat, no running water."
In testimony to a congressional subcommittee last month, Cowles voiced
concern about electric utility preparedness. He said, "My best estimate is
that only 60 to 70 percent of the companies are fully aware of the magnitude
of the Y2K issue and are marshalling the necessary resources to address the
issue."
Ray Willis of Central and South West Services, an affiliate of the
electric utility Public Service Company of Oklahoma, said, "I personally feel
like there's a lot of people trying to get rich off of the alarm tactics."
But even an official with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said,
"Many of the systems that have a date function may pass through the critical
date without causing a fault. But they could later refuse to accept a
modified instruction or even a new date entry. Other systems may have faults
that could result in power outages."
Central and South West Corp., a Dallas corporation that owns Tulsa-based
PSO and three other electric utilities, has been working on its preparations
for 2000 since about 1996, Willis said. "Our target completion date for 85
percent of our effort, including test certification, is December 1998, with
the other 15 to 20 percent wrapping up not later than midyear 1999."
John Smith, coordinator of information systems for OGE Energy Corp.,
parent of Oklahoma Gas and Electric Co., said that OGE has had several
departments and employees working on 2000 preparations since the early '90s.
The size of the project is reduced partly by routine replacement and
upgrades of equipment, programs and software with new versions that are
already "Year 2000 compliant," or able to process the changeover without
glitches, Smith said.
"Our desktops, for example, we lease on a three-year basis, so every
three years we're not only upgrading the applications software, but the
hardware as well," Smith said. The company also installed a new mainframe
computer system in 1994. Computer systems have been examined for date
sensitivity and are being adjusted if necessary, he said.
"The program is fairly simple. I say that with my tongue in cheek, of
course, because programming and that kind of stuff can be complex. ... But
it's finding all of those places that need to be corrected how many
programs, how many pieces of gear, how much hardware it's the identification
of all of that is where the issue really is," Smith said.
OGE's goal is to complete most of its Year 2000 adjustments by the end
of July, he said. "There may be some applications we use or some hardware
where the vendor, for example, is not going to have his Year 2000 version out
until September. We're going to say, yes, that business unit is in compliance
except for these issues that are already on the plate." In its latest annual
report, OGE estimated it would have less than $2 million in future Year 2000
compliance costs.
Winsford Spears, information technology vice president at ONEOK Inc.,
Tulsa-based parent of Oklahoma Natural Gas Co., said, "There's a theory out
there that all the electrical power plants are going to shut down (as 2000
begins), you're going to have a domino effect, and everything's going to go
blackout. ... Personally, I don't think that's going to happen at all."
Spears said, "There are small problems with computers every day of your
life, and you will have them on Jan. 1 (2000)." But, he said, "I don't
subscribe to the doomsday theory." Spears said he doesn't expect problems
with gas supplies or billing.
At ONEOK, "We've replaced our systems all in the last 10 to 12 years,"
including a new Year 2000-compliant mainframe computer installed in 1997, he
said.
"We had a pretty good head start on a lot of our stuff, and we're
looking at spending probably $1= million to $2 million total in modifications
to our computer applications, and this is spread over the 1997-98-99 fiscal
years," Spears said.
ONEOK's target for being done with its basic Year 2000 changes and
preparations is the end of the first quarter of 1999. But he said even if the
project stopped now, he would not expect any big problems at ONEOK when 2000
arrives. "We have to be dependent upon our vendors, our major suppliers, and
my comfort level also is very high that all these people are going to address
these problems," Spears said.
Smith said electric utilities also are experienced in dealing quickly
with service outages, due to storms and other problems. "We'd like to have
100 percent up-time, with no outages. But we know those things happen. ... So
we know we have to have alternatives," he said.
Willis said some computer systems around the world might have problems
when 2000 arrives. But at PSO and its sister electric utilities, technicians
will have worked on the compliance issue for years and expect to be fully
prepared.
"We're also going to obviously have contingency plans in place," he said.
Although utility technicians are confident of preparations for 2000,
Willis said, "I think all of us will be on hot-standby on New Year's Eve."
Editor's Note: This story concludes a weeklong series about the problems
surrounding computers' internal switchover to 2000 and how businesses,
government agencies and other people are dealing with it.
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