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Technology Stocks : AOL, now I get it
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To: Allen L. Axelson who wrote (147)12/3/1996 12:36:00 AM
From: Thom Taylor   of 496
 
Do you know the drop out rate? How many new subscribers signed up
for the 50 free hours and after that will drop out. I might even do it
myself.

Many local on ramp providers are reducing their pricing to $10 for
unlimited usage. New infrastructure costs will not improve the bottom
line.

I think when these new people start dropping off AOl will need to pull
another rabbit out of the hat.

Big picture is many people use AOL for e-mail. Now Juno & FreeMark
offer FREE e-mail. This provides a permanent e-mail address. AOL and
others have just become a commodity. May the cheapest provider win.

2nd most people spend most their time in only areas of high interest.
A growing number of people are finding these special interest places
on the net. If they can't find it they create it. Just like what
we are doing on Silicon Investor.

Content providers are already jumping ship. More will when they find
that they can get paid buy advertisers to keep up their web page.

The only thing pushing the stock up is hype. When the market decides
to profit take, dip, correct you'll all be holding the bag.

My Omni Trader is showing some very negative indicators for people going
long. Looks like a Shorting opportunity is about to take place.
The Dow & S&P are at the top of their trading channel and appear over
extended. Remember sell on good new buy on bad news.

Thanks for your comments.

I would take any profit you can because as soon as the number of drop
out hits the streets it will be a very fast down draft.

Good luck,

TT
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