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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.94

+1.1%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Eric who wrote (14857)	6/30/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: Thomas Scharf	Read Replies (3) of 77400

"Irrational exuberance!" This kind of momentum makes me nervous. As a long term investor and CSCO bull, I would prefer a more orderly stock appreciation. The action of the last few days virtually guarantees that we will have a crunching correction just like '94 & '97. I was just looking at the chart & noticed that there was also a mini-correction in winter of '95/'96. There is a pattern of precipitous price drops approximately 18 months apart. Based on that schedule, we are just about due for another one. I don't believe this has squat to do with the fundamental performance of the company. It is more a matter of the psychology of the herd. It takes about 18 months for the excitement to build then some tiny bit of less that great news comes along and bursts the bubble. I'm going to look for a way to cover my a** without selling my shares (cost basis is way too low. < $10. The tax bite would be downright nasty).

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