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Technology Stocks : 3DFX
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To: UCLAlumnus who wrote (4906)6/30/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: Hal Rubel  Read Replies (2) of 16960
 
RE: "I'm guessing 20 before (earnings) and 25 after."

IMHO:
I expect quite a few favorably inclined old hands to reinforce their positions (and for some negatively inclined shorts to re-evaluate their positions in our favor) before earnings. TDFX has been tested on many issues and done well on each.

I fully expect 23 shortly before and 27 to 31 after with only a slight sell off. Quarterly earnings of .50 will produce the former, .76 the later. OEM announcements at the conference call would add stability to the post announcement period.

Some Factors:
Earnings -$0.50 - $0.76. ($1.26 max).
Mindshare -Visit any Fry's of CompUSA.
Competition -Overpriced Vapor Ware.
Issueing More Shares -Been there. Done that.
Shorting -Overdone. Weakened arguments seem to prevail.
Montgomery -Done or may suspend selling July 1st, at least until earnings.
OEM Announcements -Reasonably expected.
Banshee -To go AGP2 and 25 micron soon.
Market Cycle -What goes down, must come up.

Hal

PS: The only cloud on the horizon is possible overstocking by the major retailers. Retailer promotions and competitively lowered prices will more than make up for reduced shipments. Right now the product is STILL selling itself at current prices at the retail level according to my local FRY's in Fountain Valley, CA. The 3d card section is greatly expanded and half of all the cards facing the customers are Monster 12's. I was truly moved. HR
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