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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets
IDTI 48.990.0%Mar 29 5:00 PM EST
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To: craig poppe who wrote (9030)6/30/1998 3:45:00 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (2) of 11555
 
Kurlac has a better record than the average semiconductor industry analyst. He has been right on the money on the calls I have seen from him over the past 18 months and called the top in the semis in March.

I think he sees things pretty clearly;

<''End demand is slower in Asia and the U.S., and is beginning to slow in Europe,'' he added. ''We believe that semi-conductor unit sales may slow to single digits.''>

-- Over-supply and lower prices for DRAMs and uPs and at best equilibrium supply/demand for most other semi categories combined with 8%-12% world-wide unit growth (down from estimates earlier this year) will lead to about a 10% decline in industry-wide semi sales. That is the cloud that will continue to hang over the semis and semi equipment stocks for much of this year. Because a large portion of investment in the sector is controlled by institutions, shrinkage in Intel's and other major players in the business is likley to effect the entire sector despite what is going on with individual companies.

My outlook is not that gloomy. I think many of the beaten down semis are ripe for purchasing on any pull-back. They may come into some selling in July to August. The outlook for next year is very good because build-out of new capacity has been scaled back significantly and the down-trend in Asia should be played out. Sell into the 4th of July holiday period and buy back as the techs continue under pressure afterward, IMO.
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