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Technology Stocks : 3DFX

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To: Pierre-X who wrote (4915)6/30/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: Michael G. Potter  Read Replies (1) of 16960
 
The survey that was reposted here (and posted on Yahoo and The Fool boards), is closer to what I was talking about. Raw counts of boards on shelves doesn't mean as much as sales data. If large stores have large numbers of boards, it is because they expect large sales. They'd rather take a small risk and overstock on high margin pieces than understock and lose sales.

If you've ever played "the beer game" <a description can be found in the book _The Fifth Discipline_>, you'll quickly see where supply/demand can get seriously out of whack. My concern is that the initial demand that seemed high when compared to the initial low supply may have lead to over-ordering and production. Great news for the current quarter - not so great for the quarters to follow. It'll hit the board makers hard before it hits TDFX.

Michael
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