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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Investor2 who wrote (4960)	6/30/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) of 9980

I agree with the first sentence, I2. The US was "fortunate" in the 80's in that the 80/81 recession "rolled" through the economy hitting the Agricultural,Energy, S&L and Real Estate sectors sequentially rather than simultaneously. The Japanese don't appear to be as "lucky" in that regard especially with regional economies deteriorating at a time when export sales and loan repayments are particularly needed. I think the verdict is still out on the your second statement not because of the relative size of the problems but rather the relative expectations embedded in equity prices of the 80's versus today. Today's market P/E is probably twice as high as the average P/E of the 80's and thus much less cushioned for any shock. The term, "impact that the current Japanese problems", is a very large phrase in my conservative investment opinion since its outcome affects the region's ability to rebound and has spillover potential into the markets for currencies, commodities, US govt. debt and of course equities. I'm not looking for a quick rebound in Japan or the Far East yet.

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