Todd,
I never make it my practice to predict exact exit points for stocks. I am constantly evaluating whether stocks will move up further or down further. With reagrds to Zitel/M-D, I am confident that this is a longwinded story that will take us wel into 1998. WHen will I exit Zitel? When the Year2000 story reaches the cover of Newsweek or Time. THese are contrarian indicators. Hey, look at this weeks New York TImes Mgazine. They lambast that poor fund maanger ebcause AOL was in the dumps. WHat happens MOnday morning? AOL is rocketing! LOL!
Having said that, let me tell you what I think Zitel is capable of. If Zitel were valued the same way as VIAS, it would be at 100 (200 pre-split). If feel this would be the bottom of Zitel's future trading range (again, if ZITL were valued like VIAS). If Zitel/MD captures a market lead in Y2k consulting, it will be valued higher than VIAS (assumming no change in VIAS valuation). If that happens, I have no idea how far Zitel. In that case, I would not look for a pirce to exit, I would look for a positive, mainstream story in a antional publication <g>.
BTW, don't put yourself down for not finding double baggers, etc. I have no special inside info. I get my stock ideas where everybody else does, e.g., SSR, IndInv, etc. After that, I screen them carefully, get their SEC stuff, and then simply let the information sink in. THen I make my picks. I have been in and out of ZItel since they were mentioned in SSR earlier this year.
The rest is just hard work.
DocStone |
